State economists expect Oregon will add 170,000 jobs over the next several years, bolstered by strong growth in the construction and health care industries.

The pace of job growth is slowing, though, as the state’s population ages, the post-pandemic labor boom recedes and as migration into Oregon settles into a slower pace. The Oregon Employment Department’s latest forecast anticipates just 8% more jobs during the coming decade, down from prior 10-year forecasts that predicted employment would grow by as much as 13%.

Oregon economist Sarah Cunningham forecast job growth by industry and by occupation. One analysis gives a high-level look at the sectors that are growing and the other shows what specific jobs are likely to add the most positions.

The good news is that many of the fastest-growing professions pay wages that are far above the state average.

Construction tops Cunningham’s industrial forecast, with projected growth of 14.3% in the coming years. Oregon leaders are hopeful of adding tens of thousands of homes in the next several years, and someone needs to build them all.

Health care will grow nearly as fast, Cunningham expects, owing to the “aging of Oregon’s population, longer life expectancies, and an expected rebound in Oregon’s long-term population growth.”

The outlook is less rosy for some industries. Oregon factories will expand by just 6% in the coming years, according to Cunningham’s projections. She doesn’t expect manufacturing will return to its pre-pandemic peak until the early 2030s.

Newspapers, paper mills and big retailers are shedding jobs. All those industries are expected to lose at least 20% of their workers in the coming years.

If you’re looking for a career that will take you into the next decade, Cunningham’s forecast lists a dozen jobs likely to grow the fastest through 2033. Nearly all pay well above the state’s median wage, which probably shouldn’t be surprising — jobs that are in demand are going to command premium wages.

Topping the list are nurse practitioners. Those are nurses with clinical training to diagnose medical issues and recommend treatment. It’s a high-skill job with a correspondingly high wage of more than $140,000 annually. (Oregon’s median annual wage is about $52,000.)

Oregon has relatively few nurse practitioners today, about 2,600, but Cunningham projects it as the state’s fastest-growing career in percentage terms. It’s slated to expand by more than 50% by 2033.

Other rapidly growing careers include physician assistants, veterinarians, software developers and architects. Those are also jobs that require specialized skills, and workers are compensated accordingly, earning median wages above $100,000.

But not all rapidly expanding fields pay well.

Oregon will add 4,000 restaurant cooks by 2033, Cunningham projects, growth in a profession that pays a median wage of about $38,000.

And while Oregon’s labor market continues to grow, some professions are shrinking — especially roles that can be automated as artificial intelligence grows more robust.

Work in data entry and as bank tellers, legal secretaries, administrative assistants and clerks will all employ fewer Oregonians than today, according to Cunningham’s forecasts.